Which manufacturers will be fucked in 2030?

[The Reverend Bluejeans]

An interesting thread on Autoshite - well, just the one.

Come 2030 and no more new petrol or diesel cars, who will pull the plug and tell the UK to go fuck themselves? Take BMW, Mercedes and Audi as just three. There will be a long period where nobody is buying a new car but where folk will just keep their ICE car for as long as possible.

Who will bite the bullet first? I reckon Ford will pull the plug first. With the Chinks controlling at least half of lithium production, the whole EV thing has got disaster written all over it.

[LynehamHerc]

There might effectively be a ban in the EU by then as the Commission has stated:

Commission proposes 55% cut in CO2 emissions from cars by 2030. The Commission proposes the following EU fleet-wide CO2 emission reduction targets for new passenger cars and vans as compared to the 2021 target: From 1 January 2030: 55 % for cars, and 50 % for vans, From 1 January 2035: 100 % for cars, and 100 % for vans.

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/eu ... for%20vans.

I'm no expert but I don't see how they're going to achieve this with the current mix of ICE cars. Add in the Greens being part of the German government now I can also see the screw being turned more than it would have been.

[treehugger]

Sounds like a good way for the EU to make itself more unpopular.

[mercrocker]

I cannot see this ban becoming actual, though. It's taken 10 years for Tesla to get this far. Can there be such a meteoric (even if mandated) improvement in all of the current (sorry) impediments that keep BEV market share in the UK below 15percent?

I know that is not the Rev's actual question but I don't think it will happen.

[LynehamHerc]

I agree with you Merc, just legislating for something doesn't necessarily make it happen and in this case it won't.

It's very easy for a government to set a target for about 10 years ahead especially if they get Brownie, or in this case Greenie, points for doing it. By that time it's going to be some other poor bastards that get crucified for missing it.

[Alf892]

But the ban is only on sales of vehicles that are solely petrol or diesel powered so we could just get ‘hybrids’ where the electric bit is no more than a wiper motor strapped to a driveshaft

[LynehamHerc]

Good point, I'd forgotten about that.

[mercrocker]

I hadn't realised it even....Shows how much notice I take of things these days.

[LynehamHerc]

Probably the best approach as so much of the so called news is bollocks, it makes Hooli seem like a reliable, unbiased source of information.

[mercrocker]

Well yes it is all bollocks as we know, however what is more pertinent to this situation is my sole inability to have afforded a new vehicle in half a century of working makes it extremely unlikely that such will be the case a full decade after my retirement.

Personally I think Ford will stick around. They have that Mustang Mach E nonsense and I think a full-electric full-size truck is on the ramps Stateside. People here keep buying the fucking things after they put a sizeable part of the population out of work, after all.